Investors view industrial as stable due to income growth prospects.
Industrial real estate is now entering a new era of smart growth, based on optimizing supply chains, advanced technology initiatives and sustainability, according to PWC and the Urban Land Institute’s latest report on emerging trends in real estate in 2025.
Following the pandemic, companies rushed to construct new logistics facilities, resulting in oversupply. As a result, speculative development fell 43% in 1H 2024 compared to the prior year – a trend expected to continue into 2025. Leasing activity also slowed in 2023 and 2024. The report predicts that it is about to change with more high-quality options that will be part of “a strategic, deliberate approach to growth that will shape the future of the supply chain.” However, leasing activity will be more moderate than experts anticipated.
In the first half of 2024, there were 80 million square feet of net absorption – 37% less than in the same period in 2023. Leasing nationwide rose 5% — an outcome attributed to lower rental rates and considered a leading indicator of net absorption.
More stakeholders are being included in decision-making and reevaluating business models. “C-suite executives and supply chain consultants have become involved with day-to-day leasing, leading to extended deal-making timelines,” the report noted. Leasing will focus on tactical approaches and cost optimization to increase revenues, optimize expenditures and maximize resources.
Meanwhile, efforts to mitigate risks and move goods closer to the end consumer will continue, the report said. To diversify, manufacturing facilities in India and Mexico are expanding, a trend driven by onshoring and nearshoring. While the pace of onshoring to the U.S. has slowed due to limited land availability and higher operational costs, foreign direct investment in Mexico increased 27% in 2023. Chinese manufacturers continued to move operations into the country as demand in border markets in both Mexico and the U.S. surged.
Industrial tenants in the U.S. are confronting heightened capital constraints while focusing on optimizing operating margins, capital outlay and resource needs – especially access to power and water as companies use more energy intensive technologies.
One source in the report identified power availability as second only to location in leasing decisions. California, Phoenix and Nevada are already facing supply challenges. With rising temperatures in some southern states, high-power control and technologically advanced facilities increase the power needed to fuel modern logistics facilities. “Battery and solar capabilities have continued to gain traction in key logistics markets that experience brownouts on a more frequent basis,” the report noted.
One effect of the inflow of modern, high-quality inventory is that build-to-suit properties are in less demand, except for certain tenants. Build-to-suit absorption is expected to fall by 50% in 1H 2025.
As part of the smart growth movement, the use of technology is rapidly rising. The report noted that conventional AI is widely used across different sectors, especially customer support automation. “For internal warehouse operations, adopters focus on optimizing pick stations and throughput rates, capitalizing on existing labor, and helping increase efficient operations…Companies are now adopting quick-fix solutions – such as automated warehouse robots to transport goods throughout the facility.”
Supply chain visualization technology relying on predictive models is also being used for inventory management and accuracy and monitored by supply chain analysts. Since data integrity is crucial for accurate modeling, optimized warehouse and network design have become crucial, especially for larger, well-funded companies to manage inventories and complex supply chains and to optimize financial overheads, the report said.
Sustainability measures that will be gradually implemented are also being in development. Environmental initiatives, including net zero goals and state and local regulations, are helping drive adoption. “An estimated 40% of industrial users have adopted net-zero goals as of 2024, compared to less than 10% in 2019,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, industrial deal volumes have stabilized after declining in 2023 and are consistent with pre-pandemic levels. Transaction volumes declined in areas with sluggish demand like Los Angeles but rose in markets with strong dynamics like Dallas.
“Cross-border investors remain active, favoring portfolio and entity deals. Investors continue to view industrial real estate as a stable long-term asset class due to stronger prospects of income growth,” the report stated.
Black Friday — the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season — is about two months away.
And that’s if you don’t count all the holiday shopping that gets done between Halloween and Thanksgiving weekend.
So the timing couldn’t be worse for a potential strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association, the union that represents dock workers, which has threatened to walk off the job if a new contract with the East Coast port terminal and shipping companies is not ironed out by the time the old contract expires on Sept. 30.
The ILA cut off negotiations in June, and in an update Tuesday, the Lyndhurst-based U.S. Maritime Alliance, or USMX — which represents the terminal operators and shipping lines — said there was no progress on negotiations for a master contract.
A strike by the ILA would effectively shut down some of the busiest ports across the nation, including the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, potentially upending the delivery of billions of dollars worth of consumer goods during peak shipping season.
The ILA, based in North Bergen, represents 85,000 workers across the East and Gulf coasts.
Its leaders are seeking significant pay hikes for their members, saying they deserve a fair share of the profits that shopping and port terminal companies have made as cargo volume remains higher after the demand caused during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The union cut off contract talks in June after learning that a form of automation had been introduced at the Port of Mobile in Alabama, which they said violated the existing contract. The port had started using an auto gate system that autonomously processes trucks without ILA labor, the union said.
“We have tremendous respect for the ILA and its members, but it is disappointing that we have reached this point where the ILA is unwilling to reopen dialogue unless all of its demands are met,” the USMX said in a statement Tuesday.
Earlier in the month, USMX said it “has still been unable to secure a meeting with the ILA to resume negotiations on a new master contract.”
Representatives for the longshoremen’s association could not be reached for comment on Tuesday.
Strike could mean weeks of supply chain delays
A strike could impact key ports on the East and Gulf coasts, from Maine to Houston, and it would cause a complete work stoppage at the Port of Newark and Elizabeth. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey acts as the landlord at those ports, leasing out space to the terminal companies.
Peter Tirschwell, vice president for maritime and trade at S&P Global, said that a strike of a few days could mean weeks of supply chain delays, while a strike lasting a week or longer would mean delays of over a month.
“A longer walkout than that will begin to seriously impact holiday shipments,” he said in an email.
Maersk — the world’s second largest shipping container company — said in a Sept. 10 note to customers that “even a one-week shutdown could take four to six weeks to recover from, with significant backlogs and delays compounding with each passing day.”
Retails have pushed forward importing schedule
“Many importers — retailers and other companies — have been aware for months of the possibility of a strike, and have therefore pushed forward their importing schedule so that a lot of holiday goods are already in the country and safe from a strike,” Tirschwell of S&P added.
Shipping to ports on the West Coast has surged — for example by 41% year over year this June at the Long Beach port, a port press release said, as companies seek backup locations to which they could ship.
“We are recapturing market share and consumer spending is driving cargo to our docks as we head into the peak shipping season,” Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero said in a statement. Meanwhile shipping surged over the summer, according to the Port Authority of NY and NJ.
But that process of rerouting ultimately adds to the cost of shopping, meaning more expensive goods on the shelf, said Richard Wohlrab, vice president of international logistics at Mariner Logistics.
Jonathan Gold, the National Retail Federation’s vice president of supply chain, called on the ILA and USMX to “return to the table and actually negotiate a new deal.”
A strike would mean “holiday shipments might not arrive on time” for retailers, Gold said last week.
“Manufacturers might not receive parts, materials, and supplies needed for production, which will lead to assembly lines shutting down,” Gold said.
“And farmers won’t be able to get their products to overseas markets, which could lead to lost sales,” he said.
By Daniel Munoz
The global airless packaging market size is calculated at USD 8.81 billion in 2024 and is expected to achieve around USD 15.91 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.79% from 2024 to 2033.
The global airless packaging market size is predicted to increase from USD 8.38 billion in 2023 to approximately USD 15.91 billion by 2033, a study published by Towards Packaging a sister firm of Precedence Statistics
Key Takeaways: Leading Factors of the Airless Packaging Market
Europe dominated the airless packaging market in 2023 due to growing skincare product and personal care industry across the region.
Asia Pacific is expected to grow at a significant rate in the market during the forecast period.
By material, the plastic segment dominated the market with the largest share in 2023.
By application, the personal care & cosmetics segment dominated the airless packaging market in 2023.
Market Overview
Revolutionizing Preservation: Innovation and Benefits for Industry Requirement
The airless packaging is a category of container system that eliminates the presence of air within the packages, thereby minimizing oxidation and contamination. This is achieved through various mechanisms that prevent air from coming into contact with the product. Airless packaging is an exclusive packaging technology engineered to reduce the exposure of its contents to outer surrounding. This methodology is commonly utilized in cosmetics industries to enhance product longevity, preserve quality, and maintain efficacy.
Many airless packaging systems utilize pump mechanism that operates without drawing in air. The pouch and dispenser systems assists in some airless packaging that involves a flexible pouch that collapses as the product is dispensed. Advanced airless packaging can incorporate vacuum technology to remove air from the container before sealing it.
Airless packaging is extensively utilized for serums, lotions, and creams. It prevents the contamination and degradation of sensitive ingredients like antioxidants and vitamins and maintains the product’s effectiveness. The airless packaging provides significant advantages in preserving product quality and extending shelf life, though it also comes with considerations regarding cost and environment impact.
Its application is valuable in fields requiring high levels of product protection and hygiene. Consumers are becoming more conscious of product quality and shelf life, leading to a preference for packaging that maintains product integrity drives the growth of the airless packaging market in the near future.
Driver
Increased Demand for Product Preservation and Sustainability Trends
Airless packaging helps protect products from contamination and oxidation, which is especially important for cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products. Airless packaging can contribute to reduced waste and increased recyclability, aligning with the growing demand for sustainable packaging solutions.
Pharmaceutical and cosmetics, both sectors are significant users of airless packaging due to the need for preserving the efficacy and longevity of their products. Increasing launch of new sustainable airless packaging solutions is estimated to drive the growth of the airless packaging market over the forecast period.
For instance, in October 2023, Aptar Beauty, skincare and cosmetic brand signed collaboration with Pinard Beauty Pack, packaging company based in France, Europe, to introduce the fully recyclable airless packaging solution to the market, namely Future Airless PET. The full recyclability is received through the combination of Aptar Beauty Company’s Future PE pump and the patented Airless PET- polyethylene terephthalate bottle-in-bottle by Pinard.
Furthermore, in April 2024, Murad, LLC, pharma and cosmetic science company, revealed the introduction of new refillable serum airtight bottles to reduce the consumer waste.
Restraint
High Cost, Complexity and Design Limitations
The key players operating in the market are facing challenges due high deployment cost of airless packaging technology and design limitations and while engineering which can hinder the growth of the global airless packaging market over the forecast period. Airless packaging tends to be more expensive to produce compared to traditional packaging options. The advanced technology, specialized materials, and precise manufacturing processes involved contribute to higher costs, which can be a barrier for some companies, especially those focusing on budget-conscious products. Smaller or emerging companies might find the initial investment in airless packaging technology prohibitive, limiting their adoption. Developing airless packaging involves complex engineering and design processes.
How Can AI Improve the Packaging Industry?
AI can assist in creating advanced simulations and models for airless packaging design, optimizing for functionality, material use, and production efficiency. AI algorithms can predict performance outcomes, reducing the need for costly trial-and-error methods. AI-driven design tools can help in customizing packaging solutions to meet specific consumer needs or product requirements, leading to more personalized and effective packaging solutions. AI can monitor machinery and predict when maintenance is needed, reducing downtime and improving overall manufacturing efficiency. Predictive analytics can help prevent breakdowns and extend the life of equipment.
AI-powered vision systems can inspect packaging for defects or inconsistencies during production. These systems can detect minute flaws that human inspectors might miss, ensuring higher quality and reducing waste. AI can analyze historical data and market trends to forecast demand more accurately. This helps in optimizing inventory levels, reducing overproduction or stockouts, and improving supply chain efficiency.
AI can enhance logistics by optimizing routes, reducing transportation costs, and improving delivery times. Efficient logistics contribute to cost savings and faster time-to-market for new products. AI can be used to gather and analyze consumer feedback on packaging performance and preferences, leading to more informed decisions about packaging design and functionality.
Opportunity
Growing Beauty and Cosmetic Industry
The beauty and cosmetic industry is known for its innovation, with continuous advancements in product formulations, packaging, and application technologies. This innovation in product content drives consumer interest and growth in the cosmetic market. Consumers often seek high-quality, innovative, and sustainable packaging solutions.
Airless packaging meets these demands by offering better preservation of products, such as cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which aligns with the premium and eco-conscious preferences of buyers. The key players operating in the market are focused on launching new airless packaging solutions for the beauty brands to meet the consumers demand, which is estimated to create lucrative opportunities for the growth of the airless packaging market in the near future.
For instance, in March 2024, APC Packaging, a sustainable packaging solution providing company headquartered in U.S., revealed the introduction of the EcoReady All Plastic Airless Pump (EAPP), a new solution for beauty and skincare products.
Regional Insights
Europe: Growing Cosmetics and Personal Care Industry
The Europe region is the leading region in the airless packaging market. The rapid urbanization and growing cosmetic industries in Europe supports the expansion of airless packaging market. European consumers often seek high-quality, innovative, and sustainable packaging solutions. Airless packaging meets these demands by offering better preservation of products, such as cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which aligns with the premium and eco-conscious preferences of European buyers. The key players operating in the market are focused on launching airless packaging for beauty products, which is estimated to drive the growth of the airless packaging market in Europe.
For instance, in May 2024, Quadpack, a company focused on manufacturing sustainable packaging solutions for makeup, skincare, and fragrance brands revealed the introduction of an airless packaging range called Crystal Ballet. All of the components of the refillable Crystal Ballet double-wall airless pack, which includes a premium glass bottle, are composed of reusable materials. The refill cap is composed of polyethylene, whereas the refill cartridge, pump engine, and cap are made of polypropylene. For easier recycling, the airless pump’s parts are fully detachable and contain no metal.
Social media and beauty influencers have a significant impact on consumer preferences and trends. The rise of digital platforms has accelerated the popularity of new cosmetic products and brands. European packaging companies are known for their focus on innovation and advanced technology. Many European countries have stable economies and higher disposable incomes, allowing consumers to spend more on cosmetic products. European consumers generally have higher disposable incomes, allowing them to afford premium packaging solutions like airless packaging, which may be more expensive than traditional packaging, which drives the growth of the airless packaging market in Europe region.
Asia Pacific is anticipated to grow at the fastest rate in the airless packaging market during the forecast period. As incomes rise, consumers in Asia Pacific are increasingly seeking premium and high-quality beauty and personal care products that often use advanced packaging like airless systems. Urbanization in Asia Pacific has led to a more discerning consumer base that prioritizes convenience, quality, and the advanced features offered by airless packaging.
Countries like China, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Japan are the leading contributors in pharmaceutical and skincare industry. As the pharmaceutical market grows, so does consumer preference for convenient and user-friendly packaging. Airless packaging offers ease of use and efficient product delivery, which appeals to both healthcare providers and patients.
Browse More Insights:
The global corrugated packaging market size is expected to grow from USD 276 billion in 2022 and it is predicted to hit around USD 410.50 billion by 2032, at 4.10% CAGR from 2023 to 2032.
The global cosmetic packaging market size accounted for USD 33.07 billion in 2022 to reach USD 54.13 billion by 2032 at 4.5% CAGR from 2023 to 2032.
The global edible packaging market size current valuation, standing at USD 1.4 billion in 2022 projected to culminate zenith of USD 5.26 billion by 2032 at 14.2% CAGR between 2023 and 2032.
The global active packaging market size is estimated to grow from USD 19.2 billion in 2022 at 7.5% CAGR to reach an estimated USD 39.51 billion by 2032, between 2023 and 2032.
The global antimicrobial packaging market size was at USD 10.77 billion in 2022 to hit around USD 18.81 billion by 2032, at 5.7% CAGR between 2023 to 2032.
The global automotive packaging market size is estimated to grow from USD 8.18 billion in 2022 to reach an estimated USD 13.87 billion by 2032, at 5.4 % CAGR between 2023 and 2032.
The global frozen food packaging market size is predicted to grow from USD 43.36 billion in 2022 to reach USD 71.67 billion by 2032, at 5.2% CAGR from 2023 to 2032.
The global flexible packaging market size is estimated to grow from USD 283 billion in 2022 to reach an expected USD 445.82 billion by 2032, at 4.7% CAGR during the forecast period 2023 to 2032.
The global food packaging market size was valued at USD 356.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 659.80 Billion by 2032 and is poised to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% during the forecast period 2023 to 2032.
The global smart packaging market size was estimated at USD 36.04 billion in 2022 to set a foot on USD 68.99 billion by 2032 with a registered CAGR of 6.8% from 2023 to 2032.
Airless Packaging Key Players
Albea Group
Silgan Dispensing Systems
Berry Global
APTAR Group
HCP Packaging
APC Packaging
Quadpack Industries
Cosmogen
Lumson
STP
M&H Plastics
Mold-Tek Packaging
Recent Development and Strategic Movements by the Key Players
Silgan Dispensing Systems
Parent Organization-: Silgan Holdings
Established-: 1984
Packaging company and Dispensing Solutions Providing Company
Headquartered
Virgina, U.S.
Strategic Movement
In July 2024, Silgan Holdings Inc. signed acquisition purchase and sale agreement with Weener Plastics Holdings B.V., a company providing dispensing solutions for food, personal care and healthcare products for an enterprise value of US$ 927.0 million. The acquisition of Weener Plastics Holdings B.V. company assisted Silgan company in expanding its market presence as well as geographic presence in 19 facilities predominantly in the Americas and Europe , with approximately 4,000 employees and well-equipped and advanced manufacturing technologies including significant clean room capabilities.
Lumson S.p.A.
Established -: 1975
Primary Packaging Company for Make-up and Skin-Care brand
Headquartered
Italy, Europe
Recent Development
In May 2024, Lumson S.p.A., primary packaging company, revealed the expansion of its product offerings by introduction of the glass airless jar with a pouch for skin care creams that ensures the product’s integrity and purity.
By Global Newswire
Industrial vacancy has risen for six straight quarters to reach 6.1% in June and more space is soon to be delivered. But developers need not panic as the tide is about to turn, according to Marcus & Millichap’s midyear 2024 industrial report.
In those six quarters, the company noted, nearly 629 million SF of industrial space was delivered nationwide, increasing inventory by 3.5%. In 2Q 2024, the average asking rent fell for the first time since 2011, after spiking 44% over the preceding five years.
However, the report pointed out, that 27% of current vacancies occurred in just five metros: Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Riverside-San Bernardino, and Phoenix. Even though these are metros with high demand, vacancy is expected to rise as they are flooded with 108 million SF of new industrial space collectively in 2024, compared with 129 million SF to be spread among the remaining 31 metros studied.
With much new construction expected to be delivered before the end of the year, “completions may fall short of long-term demand in most markets, as tenants frequently favor newer and higher-tech facilities,” the report commented. That trend is spurred by automation and robotics, which encourage a search for newer facilities that offer these amenities. “New move-ins have generally entailed tenants vacating older, more rudimentary facilities,” it noted.
Demand for industrial space is also driven by the growth of e-commerce. “These factors will amplify omnichannel retailers’ and logistics providers’ long-term space demand, with leasing activity showing strength in the first half of 2024,” the report stated, citing the examples of Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot and Burlington.
In the first six months of the year, some companies opted to acquire their own facilities. They included Microsoft, NVIDIA, Nestlé and Fortinet.
The additional space required to accommodate increased automation is also driving industrial demand. Over 35% of the construction pipeline consists of facilities of one million or more SF and this was the only size category to improve net absorption in the year ended June 24. Rents in this category also improved 4.6% year-over-year for new supply.
At the same time, the report predicted demand for smaller to mid-sized facilities would rise over time, encouraged by new federal programs like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act as well as the shift to reshoring and nearshoring that encourage domestic manufacturing. Indeed, by segment, manufacturing had the lowest vacancy rate (4.5%) but also the lowest rent growth (3.2%). As of June, roughly 92 percent of the manufacturing space under construction already had a tenant in place.
“These dynamics position most metros to observe upticks in manufacturing demand for older, sub-250,000 square foot properties, influencing some owners to upgrade existing facilities to attract prospective tenants,” the report said.
Even the smallest facilities – which represented only 2.7% of active construction — are expected to benefit. “Ranking as the least-vacant size tranche as of mid-year 2024, assets between 10,000 and 50,000 square feet captured at least a 10-year-high share of trades in the first six months,” it noted.
The report also cited an active industrial lending environment that Fed rate cuts would boost. It noted that insurance companies accounted for 25% of all industrial financing in 2023 – the highest level in eight years – “mostly in the form of portfolios priced at $25 million and above.” Regional and local banks remained the primary lenders for loans of $10 million or less, representing 33% of all loans. Manufacturing and R&D sites are favored.
“Moving forward, the industrial sector’s long-term leases, limited move-out risk relative to other property types, and high availability of federal grants and tax breaks will continue to lead lenders to view these assets positively,” the report stated.
After a slight decline during the first three months of 2024, North and Central Jersey’s industrial sector was back in positive form during the second quarter with 5.9 million square feet leased – a 16% quarterly increase, according to commercial real estate firm CBRE’s New Jersey Industrial Figures report.
Strong demand by smaller tenants, particularly third-party-logistics (3PL) companies, which accounted for 47% of the market’s total leasing activity, helped push absorption to a positive 1.7 million square feet, according to the report. As a result, occupancy increased for the first time since early 2023 – the vacancy rate jumped by 10 basis points (bps) to just 5% due to the delivery of two million square feet of new product entering the marketplace, the slowest increase in vacancy since the same time last year.
“New Jersey’s industrial market continues to exhibit resiliency despite economic concerns and lingering inflation felt earlier this year,” said CBRE’s Chad Hillyer in a news release. “Smaller leases by 3PL and food and beverage companies accounted for most of the leasing activity during the quarter, which once again was strong, especially in the 50,000 to 100,000 sq.-ft. range.”
Given that 1.6 million square feet of space was absorbed in properties built after 2021, strong leasing activity in the second quarter was a boon for developers of new facilities. The largest two leases in the market during were DSV’s 355,000 square-foot commitment at 300 Salt Meadow Road in Carteret, and JW Fulfillment’s 342,000 square-foot lease at 99 Callahan Boulevard in Sayreville.
While the vacancy rate was up slightly, sublease availabilities reached the highest level since the third quarter of 2020 at 6.5 million square feet. The average asking rents remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter with Class A space rents at $19.40 per square foot. Industrial space in Class B and C properties experienced an increase of 3% due to strong demand for smaller units, to end the quarter at $16.62 per square foot.
For most of the past decade, it has been challenging to find large blocks of industrial space available for lease near the largest U.S. seaports. In some markets, such as Los Angeles and Northern New Jersey, it was extremely difficult to secure any major spaces in the mid-pandemic boom in imports from 2021 through early 2022.
However, both the doubling of average industrial rents in many port-adjacent locations and the unprecedented wave of distribution center development have upended these tight market dynamics. In the current market, large tenants seeking industrial space near the busiest U.S. seaports have more options than at any point in at least 20 years.
According to the Census Bureau, the top five U.S. seaports by the combined weight of imports and exports processed in 2023 were the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Newark, the Port of Houston, the Port of Savannah, and the Port of Virginia in Norfolk.
Since the end of 2020, the combined stock of existing industrial properties within a 30-minute rush hour drive of these ports has increased by 9.5% or 72 million square feet, roughly the size of 1,250 American football fields. Meanwhile, another 20 million square feet of industrial space remain under construction in these locations.
With developers focused on large projects that are designed to appeal to high-credit industrial tenants and garner interest from institutional real estate investors, the majority of this recently built space is comprised of projects that are 100,000 square feet or larger. The bulk of this space had also finished construction since the beginning of 2023 when industrial tenant expansions began to slow nationwide.
As a result, the square footage available for lease in industrial properties 100,000 square feet or larger within a 30-minute drive of the five busiest U.S. seaports reached a record late last year and has since risen even further, to almost 59 million square feet.
Even in the area within a 30-minute drive of the Port of Los Angeles, where the density of existing properties has kept new warehouse construction limited, the total square footage of industrial space available for lease in properties 100,000 square feet or larger is close to 8 million square feet, the highest level CoStar has ever recorded. Prolonged negotiations over a new long-term labor contract for the union that represents dockworkers on the West Coast, combined with industrial rents that sky-rocketed in mid-pandemic, have caused local industrial tenants around the port to shed space in 2023 and early 2024.
Among the five busiest U.S. seaports, only one — the Port of Virginia — has an availability rate in the single digits for nearby big-box industrial properties and below its 15-year average. Numerous marshlands and wildlife reserves that surround Norfolk, where the Port of Virginia is located, have kept nearby industrial construction very limited. Lower industrial rents than those found in major West Coast and Northeastern U.S. port cities have also kept Norfolk’s tenants from shedding existing space in the same numbers as recently seen in Los Angeles and Northern New Jersey.
Most U.S. industrial markets have a significant divergence in availability between big-box industrial spaces and smaller industrial spaces. The latter is in very short supply as few developers have built projects catering to tenants occupying warehouse spaces smaller than 50,000 square feet in recent years.
Industrial areas surrounding the busiest U.S. seaports are no exception. In stark contrast to record high availability among industrial properties 100,000 square feet or larger, space available for lease in properties smaller than 50,000 square feet and within a 30-minute drive of the five busiest U.S. seaports is still near the lowest levels CoStar had ever recorded before the pandemic.
Availability rates for industrial properties smaller than 50,000 square feet surrounding the Ports of Newark, Houston, and Virginia are all well below their 15-year averages. Meanwhile, availability rates for similar properties near the Ports of Los Angeles and Savannah are essentially commensurate with long-term norms.
According to industrial CRE giant Prologis, its Industrial Business Indicator Activity Index showed an April level of activity “consistent with demand generation, supported by macro data that reflects restocking inventories amid resilient consumption activity, although realized net absorption has lagged.”
However, that is paired with a continued reduction of industrial construction, setting up an ongoing and future lack of supply, with greater competition for space in 2025 and, presumably, rents rising.
The IBA Activity index was 56.3 in April, down from a 58 average present in the first quarter of the year. According to the company, macro drivers of activity were “solid” with core retail sales showing 1.1% month-over-month growth in March and a 4.5% year over year. “Adding to demand drivers, the more logistics-intensive e-commerce channel outperformed with 2.7% month-over-month and 11.3% year-over-year growth while in-store sales grew 0.4% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year in March,” they said.
Facilities utilization was about 85% in both March and April. That’s up from a low of 83% in the last quarter of 2023.
“Despite a strong rise in import volumes, sales outpaced inventory growth, pushing down the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.24, approximately -3% below the 2019 average. This points to further need to build inventories, particularly for wholesalers.”
A lack of warehouse space could also have more extended impact on logistics, leaving less room for products coming into the country.
The company also noted that net absorption of 26 million square feet underperformed what might have been expected. “IBI readings and macro data suggest logistics real estate demand growth should be higher than what was realized in Q1,” they said.
Prologis pointed to two major but temporary factors. One was that some customers had been able to accommodate growth using capabilities in their existing networks, which the lower utilization rates and a rise in sublease space in some markets indicated. But there are likely only one or two more quarters worth of extra space left, as the 84.4% April utilization rate was below the more typical 85% to 86%. In addition, sublease space growth slowed everywhere other than Seattle and Southern California.
The second factor was economic uncertainty and an emphasis on cost control delaying decision making. “Evidence of this trend includes extensive property tours, longer deal gestation times and delayed occupancy dates, even with a rise in proposal activity,” they wrote.
With Q1 deliveries down by more than a third from 2023 Q4, there’s an end to record completions with tight construction financing and costs.
Prologis estimates that the result of accumulated pent-up demand and fallen construction of new supply will mean peak 2024 vacancy in the mid-6% range, which will fall to mid-5% in 2025.
The flood of new capital into industrial outdoor storage has retreated from the recent boom due to today’s cost of debt. But long-term buyers and specialized investors see the next year as one filled with buying opportunities, including in high-demand port regions and up-and-coming inland markets, for those with capital access.
Significant tailwinds have bolstered inland ports and adjacent IOS space, while port markets, which saw skyrocketing prices and rising rental rates, have come back down to earth, offering buying opportunities.
“The next 12 to 24 months are going to be probably the best buying cycle that we’ve had in the IOS space,” said Ben Atkins, co-founder and CEO of Zenith IOS, an investment, development and management company focused on IOS that formed in 2021.
In recent months, inland IOS markets have seen rapidly increasing activity and corresponding rent increases, making these assets more attractive acquisition targets.
Powered by onshoring and reshoring, transportation investments and a remaking of supply lines and logistics plans, this shift adds another source of future growth and demand to a sector that saw a run-up in sales volumes, prices and interest due to booming pandemic-era e-commerce activity. It’s helping IOS outperform other parts of the industrial market, which faces a leasing slowdown and recalibration.
“I would characterize all of these IOS markets to be fairly strong compared to general warehouse,” Realterm Managing Director and Senior Fund Manager Stephen Panos said. “We’re seeing outperformance on the demand side.”
Zenith IOS conducted a study of port versus inland IOS markets and found a decline in asking rents for port markets over the last 18 to 24 months. Seattle had seen asking rents drop between 10% and 20% during that period.
At the same time, the study noted that major inland ports, such as Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas, where growth was more muted during the early Covid period, have seen anything from 5% to 15% asking rent growth. Zenith didn’t provide more exact figures from its proprietary rent database, and third-party data on the IOS market is difficult to obtain.
“Markets like New York, New Jersey and Los Angeles, had an enormous run-up during Covid, and now you’re seeing a decline from that incredible high,” Zenith principal and head of investments Alex Olshansky said.
The value of port-adjacent space in high-cost, high-barrier-to-entry coastal markets became frothy from a price perspective. During the recent period of global instability and shipping chain challenges, including the war in Ukraine, Panama Canal backlog and Red Sea tension, these port markets saw a correspondingly larger drop in rent than in markets with less of a dependence on overseas imports.
That overseas shipping anxiety has swung the pendulum back towards manufacturing and shipping investments domestically and in nearby countries. In recent months, inland IOS markets have seen rapidly increasing activity and corresponding rent increases, making these assets more attractive acquisition targets.
The nearshoring and reshoring trend has reshaped inland ports, especially those on the U.S.-Mexican border, and is expected to continue doing so. Recent data suggests U.S. investment in manufacturing was up 63% year-over-year in 2023, and foreign direct investment in Mexico spiked 200% year-over-year. It’s a shift that’s likely to evolve considerably in the next five to 10 years, Panos said, which will likely reroute and reorganize supply chains, boosting different IOS markets.
“We’re pretty bullish on it,” Atkins said. “We think that that will be a big demand driver, a big tailwind for industrial real estate, for the foreseeable future.”
Despite weakness in the trucking sector, such as the bankruptcy of Yellow Trucking, the new demand for shipping for manufacturing, construction materials and the auto industry is making up for the loss and keeping noncoastal IOS in high demand. Most of the property sold off in the Yellow bankruptcy proceedings went for high prices. Many midwest IOS markets, which have low population growth and fundamentals that in other asset classes would suggest smaller rent growth, have shown steady, strong growth, said Panos.
Joliet, Illinois, for instance, 40 miles outside of Chicago, boasts highway connectivity and the convergence of six major railroads. The city has seen consistent industrial deal activity and new spec warehouse construction.
That strength goes hand in hand with increased consumer demand and the effort by companies to meet that demand in new markets. It’s creating demand for a more robust, expansive IOS network.
“Generally what we’re seeing is expansion,” Panos said. “We’re seeing little, if any, contraction.”
Couple that with other data points that inform IOS investor decisions — Zenith looks at multifamily growth, population growth and density due to close correlations between increased need for consumer goods and e-commerce — and border markets like Otay Mesa and El Paso have benefitted. Perhaps the most significant IOS market impacted by these trends is Laredo, Texas. The port city on the Rio Grande River has become the nation’s busiest port, with numerous new warehouses breaking ground and a 3% industrial vacancy rate.
And perhaps even more valuable to IOS growth, trade between the U.S. and Mexico is much more than even the U.S. and China, Timber Hill Group Managing Partner Cary Goldman said. The flow of trucks remains relatively even in both directions, creating much more demand for parking and truck yards.
“There’s a bottleneck,” Goldman said. “You have all this product coming in from Monterrey and it probably does want to get to Austin or Dallas, or somewhere else in Texas, and Laredo is this entry and exit door.”
But while that manufacturing growth will create an outsized demand for outdoor storage space around U.S. plants and factories, that doesn’t mean there won’t also be an outsized demand for distribution and logistics real estate centered on international trade.
In fact, the decline in port market rents tracked by Zenith will likely be a massive buy signal for IOS investors. Panos agrees, seeing it as a normalization, a chance to buy high-quality collateral cheaper with less competition, not a “catching falling knives” scenario.
“We’re more bullish now on buying in the coastal markets than we ever have been because they’ve repriced,” said Atkins. “We’re actively looking in those markets. The buying opportunities in the coastal markets are stronger than ever.”
Coastal markets, the areas with the highest density and highest land values, always feel too expensive, said Panos. But while it may seem like rents have nowhere to go, they’ve historically, steadily, risen.
“I do think it’s probably closer to the beginning than the end in terms of capital appetite for the sector,” Panos said. “We think this sector is three times larger than general warehouse. It’s a large, investable, universe.”
Zenith found that the IOS market still remains decentralized, both in terms of ownership and geography. Within the roughly $300B market, the top 50 markets only comprise $100B of value.
“Opacity equals opportunity,” Atkins said. “Early movers don’t want to make it easier for others to see the opportunities.”
Competition in the construction-supplies sector is turning into a delivery race.
Ferguson, one of the largest plumbing and heating materials distributors in the U.S., is adding three warehouses in major cities across North America over the next two years to step up its rapid-delivery capabilities in an increasingly competitive sector serving professional contractors.
Chief Executive Kevin Murphy said contractors have gotten used to fast shipping in their personal lives and now expect speedy fulfillment for materials, from toilets and water heaters to piping, that they need on job sites. “Their expectation is framed by, ‘I want to have my sunglasses delivered same-day,’” Murphy said.
Ferguson and its rivals are vying for a bigger share of a construction market that has been buffeted by volatile demand in recent years.
Overall U.S. construction spending has grown over the past three years, driven by a wave of companies building manufacturing plants and data centers. But residential construction has slowed as higher interest rates have pushed potential buyers out of the market, and office construction has turned sharply downward as a result of the faltering return to the office by American workers.
That is putting a premium on serving contractors alongside the big firms that manage larger projects and are trying to keep their costs down through tighter controls on materials inventories.
Ferguson, which is based in the U.K. with operations solely focused on North America, has restructured its supply chain to accommodate the shift, opening smaller, highly automated warehouses closer to population centers to fill orders for pickup and delivery on a tight turnaround. The company plans to open three more of what it calls market distribution centers by the end of 2025, adding to an existing network of four of the facilities as well as 10 larger, regional distribution centers.
Murphy said the company plans to eventually place market distribution centers in all major U.S. cities.
Evelyn Xiao-Yue Gong, an assistant professor of operations management at Carnegie Mellon University, said industrial customers have grown accustomed to fast shipping from retailers such as Amazon.com and Walmart. Shoppers now expect “more of the things they need in their life all around to be delivered in a fast timespan,” regardless of whether the product is for personal or professional use, Gong said.
Ferguson’s smaller distribution centers, which range from 350,000 to 750,000 square feet, fill a gap in the company’s supply chain between its 1,750 bricks-and-mortar stores and its sprawling regional warehouses that can exceed 1 million square feet. The market distribution centers carry more inventory than stores and include areas with lockers where customers can pick up their orders at any time of day or night.
“Many of our customers are going to a customer site or a job site predawn and so the ability to come pick up materials that they need on their way to the job is hugely important,” Murphy said.
The smaller warehouses have helped Ferguson cut fulfillment costs by allowing its suppliers to deliver full truckloads at a time and to smooth out production cycles, Murphy said.
A booming market for home-improvement materials during the pandemic has faded as consumers have pared back do-it-yourself projects and shifted spending toward services such as travel. Now, more building-materials companies are competing for business from construction and remodeling professionals, which they view as a strong growth market.
Home Depot is buying roofing distributor SRS Distribution in a deal valued at $18 billion that is aimed at bringing the home-improvement retailer more business from big contractors and construction firms. The Atlanta-based company is adding four distribution centers this year to its network of 14 warehouses targeting professionals, with dedicated sites handling bulky construction materials such as lumber, insulation and roofing shingles.
Serial dealmaker Brad Jacobs, executive chairman of less-than-truckload carrier XPO, in December started a tech-focused company called QXO that plans to acquire businesses distributing construction materials.
The industrial real estate sector in New Jersey faces a significant challenge. Many new industrial spaces are slated for completion in 2024, just as tenant preferences shift because of concerns about a slowing economy that potentially complicates the market landscape.
Currently, 19.2 million square feet of industrial space are under construction in New Jersey, equivalent to roughly half the size of Central Park in New York City. Thirty-four “new class A-type buildings” are now under construction or are planned to be delivered in 2024.
These brand new, single-story industrial properties are at least 200,000 square feet to approximately 1.2 million square feet. This influx of new space, particularly concentrated in northern New Jersey, is expected to negatively affect market dynamics.
Predictions suggest that the average vacancy rate for industrial spaces could increase to 5.1% in 2024. This would be a notable rise and the first of its kind since 2012.
New wave Middlesex County is at the forefront of this new construction wave, with 4.7 million square feet underway, akin to nearly half the total floor space of the Pentagon.
Alarmingly, 90% of this upcoming space has not yet been leased.
This additional industrial real estate that is now destined for the New Jersey market creates tremendous opportunities for tenants and purchasers, as the formerly “tight markets” start loosening the developer’s/landlord’s firm grip on pricing any available space.
However, the state’s industrial real estate developers still have a growing preference for developing larger, mega-sized properties (over 200,000 square feet, or equivalent to about two Manhattan city blocks).
These properties, which represent 67% of ongoing construction, have a low pre-lease rate of just 8%. Unless deal velocities pick up, this situation could lead to increased leasing concessions by developers as more “shell buildings” enter the market.
Turning tide Tenant preferences are also evolving, with a noticeable trend toward mid-sized buildings, ranging from 50,000 square feet to 150,000 square feet — comparable in size to an NFL football field. This shift is challenging the leasing landscape for larger spaces.
That may potentially lead to long-term vacancies or necessitate a reevaluation of use for these larger properties from developers hoping to hit a “home run” with a single-tenant, rather than having more capital-extensive multi-tenanted or possibly repurposed developments.
Such changes underscore New Jersey’s industrial real estate market’s dynamic nature. They also signal a critical adjustment period for developers and property owners until more positive signs of increased demand for space arise, akin to 2020 and through the heights of demand that went into the first quarter of 2023.
In the face of New Jersey’s industrial real estate evolution, the emergence of new Class A space presents an unparalleled opportunity for tenants and buyers to capitalize on more favorable market conditions.